Clinical Risk Factors, DNA Variants, and the Development of Type 2 Diabetes
Original source: New England Journal of Medicine Volume 359, Number 21
Authors: Valeriya Lyssenko, Anna Jonsson, Peter Almgren, Nicoló Pulizzi, Bo Isomaa, Tiinamaija Tuomi, Göran Berglund, David Altshuler, Peter Nilsson, and Leif Groop
Publication date: November 20, 2008
DOI (digital document ID): not available
Requires subscription? Yes
Publicly-available abstract: Yes
Synopsis:
The aim of this paper is to determine whether environmental and clinical risk indicators, genetic factors, or both can be used to predict whether or not a person will develop Type 2 diabetes.
The authors singled out 16 specific gene markers that might be used to predict risk or development of diabetes. They tracked those, plus known environmental and clinical risk indicators, for over 16,000 Swedish patients and over 2500 Finnish patients, for a median period of 23.5 years. They studied the effect of variations of the gene markers on insulin secretion and insulin action over this period of time.
Over the observation period, approximately 11.7% of the subjects developed diabetes. Variations in 11 of the genes studied were associated with developing diabetes, independent of other risk indicators. Variants in eight of those genes were specifically associated with impaired beta cell function.
Adding the genetic risk to the clinical and environmental indicators slightly improved the long-term ability to predict whether or not an individual would develop Type 2 diabetes. This predictive ability increased with the duration of the follow-up.
Reliability:
While a large population was observed, and the medium observation time was over 20 years, the abstract does not provide insight into the distribution of follow-up duration, to let us know whether the median is a statistically-significant number. The improved prediction ability turns out to be about 1.5% better than the accuracy without the genetic information, which may not be cost-effective at the present time.
Practical Applications:
Known genetic risk is sometimes an incentive for making lifestyle changes to reduce the other risks for developing diabetes.
If the full paper shows direct correlations between insulin secretion, insulin resistance, and genetic variations, then initial pharmaceutical therapy can be better targeted to the individual's needs.
This synopsis was based on the abstract only.
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